Will the used Porsche market remain high and if so, for how long?
Unless you don’t pay attention or even care about the car market, both the used car market and the new car market are extremely high. Normally, cars depreciate over time. It is very rare for any car to increase in value once you drive it off the lot. Usually, the moment you drive it off the lot, you lost money. Most people don't buy cars as an investment. However, Porsches are one of the best brands for holding their value, but most Porsches still depreciate over time. As with everything, there are exceptions to this rule (RS models, Carrera GTs, 918s, etc.), but for the average baseline models (911s, Caymans, Macans, etc.), the moment that you drive it off the lot, you just lost money.
According to a Porsche salesman…
I recently spoke with a Porsche salesman about this phenomena and asked him what he thought about this and the trends that he is witnessing. Since this was not an “official” interview, I am not going to list his name or state which Porsche dealership he works for; however, he spoke very freely to me about how crazy the market is right now.
According to the Porsche salesman, customers are currently paying, on average, 25-50 Gs over the MSRP on base model 911s, which is crazy. If you want a GT3 allocation, you can expect to pay 50-75 K over sticker, and the customer is expected to put $50,000.00 down (non-refundable). Since I am very interested in the GT4RS, I asked him about an allocation for one of those. He laughed as he responded to me and said good luck. According to him, Porsche is only making 600 of the GT4RSes and the U.S. is only expected to get 200 of those. If you want to order one of those, you will probably need to pay 100K over sticker. My personal opinion, I think the GT4RSes are going to be extremely rare and a highly sought after car. I could foresee them selling for 200-300K over sticker (eventually).
So why has the market increased?
Everyone knows that we are in a pandemic. The pandemic is causing problems across the board. For the automobile industry specifically, it’s the car “chip shortage.” Yes, every new vehicle needs a computer chip to run, Porsches are included in this. I wish I had had good news for potential Porsche buyers but it looks like things may get worse before they get better.
According to YAA, (https://joinyaa.com/guides/chip-shortage/), “We did get bad news this week from Volkswagen and Toyota. Both companies announced that their plants in Tianjin, China were closed due to pandemic reasons. Toyota annually produces 620,000 vehicles at this production facility, so this will certainly be a story worth keeping our eyes on.
Chip Shortage Update 1/10/22
The chip shortage that has plagued automakers for well over a year now appears to be abating. In December of 2021 we measured the slowest increases in expected losses of production as a result of the chip shortage we had all year (around 20,000 vehicles). For the entire year automakers globally lost 10.2 million vehicles from production because of the chip shortage."
As you are probably aware, Porsche is in the Volkswagen group and therefore will be delayed even more with their production.
When will things start to “normalize”?
The good news is, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. I’ve researched multiple platforms across multiple sites and most of them agree that the used market will normalize in 2022. However, the average consensus is in the “fall of 2022,” (Octoberish). Therefore, if you plan to buy a vehicle soon, you can expect to pay top dollar for your car. On the flip-side, if you plan on selling your vehicle soon, you can expect to receive top-dollar for you car. According to both Edmunds and the Kelly Blue Book the used car market has increased in value by over 27% (this is for all makes/models, not just Porsches). Even banks and credit unions are adjusting their “loans” on used autos to try and accommodate for these new prices. Right now, on average, vehicles that are two to three years old, are selling above their original MSRP.
My personal dilemma…
Since I own two Porsches (neither of them are rare or highly sought after cars), but they are both good cars, in great shape, with low miles, that I could easily flip. My question is, should I sell them? Based on the market right now, and cars currently listed that are similar to mine in both miles and condition, I think I could sell my 911 for a lot more than what I paid for it. However, (comma), if I bought the car I want (GT3 or 3RS), the money I gained from my sell would be lost in the new purchase; because all GT3s and 3RSes are selling at the top of the spectrum. Or do I have the patience to wait 10-months or so, and hope that the used market normalizes then take the proceeds from selling my car to purchase my dream car?
Please let me know what you think about my dilemma and the used market....
Here are a few examples:
This 992 GT3 is currently listed for $324,888.00 at https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/74c5f13d-799e-4de7-81da-aa67684e3585/
Listings of my current car - 2018 911 GTS with less than 15,000 miles:
This car does not have as many options or any of the mods that mine has either and is listed for almost $150K https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/74c5f13d-799e-4de7-81da-aa67684e3585/